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Alberta Harvest Reaches 89% Done

With more than 10% of this year’s crop still out in the field, the harvest is now likely finished for this year in some parts of Alberta, according to the latest weekly crop report.
 
Released on Friday, the report pegged the overall harvest in the province at about 89% complete as of Nov. 5, up about 8 points from a week earlier but behind last year when 95% of the crop was off at this time. Of this year’s unharvested crops, just over half were estimated to be still standing with the remainder in the swath.
 
“In many areas, the recent snowfall with more still in the forecast, is most likely to bring harvest to a complete halt for the season,” the report said. “Some planted acres will be abandoned, while those with yield potential will likely remain unharvested until spring.”
 
About 97% of the crops were off in the South Region, followed by the North West and the Central regions at 93% and 92%. The North East was about 87% done, while just 63% of the crops were off in the Peace.
 
An estimated 90% of the spring wheat crop was in the bin across the province, along with 93% of the barley, 85% of the oats, 83% of the canola, 97% of the dry peas and 88% of the flax. The harvest of most other crops was either complete or nearly complete.
 
Regional grading is greatly variable across the province, as crop quality over the season has been impacted by hail damage, severe frost and harvest date in different regions. Provincially, about 74% of hard red spring wheat and 83% of durum wheat are graded in the top two grades. About 34% of barley is eligible for malt and 47% graded as No. 1 feed. For oats, about 56% is graded in the top two grades. Almost 78% of canola is graded as No. 1, with another 14% as No. 2. For dry peas, about 21% is graded as No. 1, 52% as No. 2, 19% as No. 3 and 8% as feed.
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Video: Is China Buying US Soybeans + USDA Nov 14th Crop Report could be “Game Changing”


After a week of a U.S./China trade truce, markets/trade is skeptical that we have not seen a signed agreement nor heard much from China or seen any details. There are rumors that China is buying soybean futures & not the physical. Trust in Trump?
12 MMT of U.S. soybean purchases by China by year-end is better than 0 but we all need to give it more time and give it a chance to unfold. China did lower the tariffs on Ag and is buying U.S. wheat and sorghum.
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But despite a U.S. government shutdown we will be getting a USDA November crop report next Friday and it could be “game changing.” If the USDA provides a bullish surprise with lower U.S. corn and soybean yields and ending stocks that are lower than expected both corn and soybean futures will break out above their ceilings at $4.35/bu and $11.35/bu respectively.
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