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Assessing Wheat Freeze Damage

By Carrie Knott, Extension Agronomist-Princeton, University of Kentucky
 
Most of Kentucky is dealing with some sort of record: record low temperature, record snowfall amounts, record windchills.  We hope our wheat crop is safe because the snowfall has provided much needed insulation.  However many fields in western Kentucky had begun to ‘green-up’ prior to these chilly conditions.  Once we begin to thaw out and get consistent warm weather we will need to assess the damage. 
 
 
To determine if freeze damage has occurred to the wheat, wait until there has been at least 4 days above 40°F.  If you inspect before this occurs you may not get a clear picture of the damage because until temperatures reach at least 40°F they are essentially in a ‘refrigerator’ and damage cannot be detected.  Be patient, this time of year it may take several weeks before conditions warm up.
 
Once conditions warm up, inspect a representative area of your field for yellowing and plant death.  Pay particular attention to yellowing of the growing point and limp leaves. In most situations 70 to 100 live tillers per square foot will produce acceptable yields.  If tiller counts are 50 live tillers per square foot or less then yield reductions of up to 40% may occur.  If they are between the 50 and 70 live tillers per square foot then the higher N recommendations of 120 lbs N/A should be considered for the Feekes 5 application. 
 
An additional concern for wheat stands and yield potential is heaving.  If extreme temperature changes occur the freezing and thawing cycle may push wheat plants out of the soil. 
 
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Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.