Canadian crop yields to rise in 2022 as farmers recover from last year's drought

Sep 15, 2022

Canadian farmers are on track to produce a better crop this year, even as the memory of a punishing drought last year remains fresh in the Prairie provinces.

Early estimates from Statistics Canada suggest crop yields will be higher this harvest because of better growing conditions in Western Canada.

The agency said Wednesday it expects higher production levels for many crops, including canola, barley, soybeans and corn.

In a phone interview from his combine, Jason Lenz — who farms in the Sylvan Lake area of central Alberta — said the quality of this year's crop is also looking good.

"We’re ahead of schedule by at least a week from where we normally are with harvest, and the quality of the grain we’ve taken off so far has maybe been some of the best," Lenz said. "The wheat in particular is the best we’ve ever harvested on our farm."

After a late start to seeding due to poor weather, much of the Prairies has received consistent precipitation since June this year.

That's a sharp contrast from 2021, when a severe drought withered crops in the fields. According to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada statistics, Western Canadian production of principal field crops fell by more than 40 per cent year-over-year in 2021, and was nearly 37 per cent below the previous five-year average.

For the country as a whole, total 2021 field crop production for Canada was more than 30 per cent lower than in 2020 and 27 per cent below the previous five-year average.

While Lenz's farm actually received more moisture in 2021 than southern parts of the province, he's still relieved to see a nice-looking crop this year. Last year, a July hailstorm destroyed his entire wheat crop.

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Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.