Canadian wheat exports ahead of last year's pace: Market Outlook

Oct 08, 2025

The latest Wheat Market Outlook, provided by Exceed Grain Marketing through the Saskatchewan Wheat Development Commission (SaskWheat), looked at wheat & durum exports and the quality of both crops.

Canadian wheat exports during week 8 of the 2025-26 crop year were 841,000 tonnes, bringing the total for the year so far at 3.15 million metric tonnes (mmt), ahead of the 2.68 mmt at the same time last year. Durum exports for week 8 were 359,000 tonnes, in line with last year's pace.

Exceed Grain Marketing is expecting a relatively strong pace for the current week and demand for Canadian wheat to remain strong, "with local delivery points prioritizing the movement of wheat in recent weeks to meet demand at port facilities."

About 90 per cent of durum wheat in Saskatchewan is harvested and 92 per cent of spring wheat has been taken off. By comparison, 96 per cent of spring wheat has been combined in Alberta, and 98 per cent of spring wheat in Manitoba has been put in the bin.

The Market Outlook cited data from the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC) for wheat quality as of September 25, 2025.

For durum: "41 per cent of samples graded #3, 25 per cent graded #2 and 18 per cent graded #1. Protein content across all graded averaged 14.9 per cent of the 190 samples in their system at the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC)." Last year's protein content in durum was 15.3 per cent and last year's durum crop was 73 per cent in the #1 or #2 categories compared to 43 per cent of this year's crop so far.

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Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.