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Ceres Global Ag Market Outlook

The Ceres Global Seeds Insight Tour included a market outlook this week.

Minneapolis-based analyst Ryan Longhenry, with Ceres Global Ag, gave his outlook on the following crops:


"We've got some historically tight ending stocks on old crop in the U.S. Some drought situations going on over in Europe. The market is not going to have as big of production as I think people were originally forecasting. We should end up in a pretty tight situation while the world awaits for the South American harvest."


"Soybean ending stocks in the U.S., very low. Basis, very historically high right now. I think it's kind of the same situation we're going to see. Weather has been okay. We're still in a key growing stage for the U.S. beans. They're starting to get some drink, so there's a little bit better prospect there. But unless the South American crop comes through big, bean price could see some strong volatility."


"Everybody's been watching the headlines on the Russia/Ukraine situation. It seems like grain is moving now. Globally, besides again some issues in the EU. U.S./Canadian crops look really good. Expecting bigger acres next year on U.S. winter crops with the higher prices. That commodity differentiates from beans and corn as we know we have a good crop coming and we need to find some more demand for it."


"Canola, after a really, really tough year last year, nice crops in Canada, 18.5/19 million metric tons of production. EU production higher. Australian production higher. Canola actually needs to find demand now with these higher prices. That one has a little more friendly road in terms of the ending stock supply, but price could see some pressure."


"Oats has been a big roller coaster. Futures and flat price rallied really, really hard into the winter. Crop conditions a little better than I think people were expecting. Bigger yields after a tight year. Prices are down a lot. It's still unknown. If we have a big national yield, we could see sustained pressure on prices but if yields don't participate, especially up in the north, we could see prices recover back into that six, seven dollar area."

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