Chicago Close: Corn, Soys Fall on Pre-Report Positioning

Sep 10, 2025

Positioning ahead of the USDA’s monthly supply-demand update on Friday weighed on corn and soybean futures on Tuesday. Wheat also ended lower.

The Friday report is expected to trim the average US corn yield estimate from August, but a huge crop is still projected overall. Monday’s USDA crop progress report showed the US corn harvest at 4% complete as of Sunday, 1 point behind last year but 1 point ahead of the five-year average. The condition of the American corn crop was down a single point on the week to 68% good to excellent, as was largely anticipated by the trade. December fell 2 cents to $4.19 ¾, and March lost 2 cents as well to $4.37 ½.

Soybeans declined on pre-report positioning too, with a small yield reduction from last month also expected. At 64% good to excellent, the condition of the US soy crop slipped a single point from a week earlier and is now 1 point below last year. November beans dropped 2 ½ cents to $10.31 ¼, and January was 2 ¼ cents lower at $10.50 ½.

Declining Russia wheat export prices and ample global supplies continued to overhang wheat. December Chicago lost 3 ½ cents to $5.20 ¼, and December Kansas City fell 7 cents to $5.10 ¼. December Hard Red Spring was steady at $5.26 ¾, and December Minneapolis eased 2 ¾ cents to $5.74.

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Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.