Dry for Central Manitoba, Hot for Western Prairie: Summer Forecast

Jun 01, 2023

Central Manitoba could be drier than normal this summer, while more heatwaves may be in store for the western Prairie, according to the Weather Network’s 2023 summer forecast.

Released Wednesday, the seasonal forecast for the months of June, July, and August calls for a "come-and-go" summer across Canada, with periods of hot, dry weather interrupted at times by bouts of cooler temperatures. And while dryness continues to be a concern in some areas, the forecast suggests the changeable pattern should result in storms that reduce the potential for widespread drought.

(See Weather Network temperature and precipitation maps below).

The outlook for Alberta is for a generally hot summer but with cold fronts bringing relief at times. Significant rainfall events and thunderstorms are likely, which should result in near-normal precipitation for much of the province, the forecast said.

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Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.