Agriculture Canada made several revisions to its durum, barley, and oats balance sheets in April, with export changes driving shifts in ending stocks for both old- and new-crop years.
Released Friday, the updated monthly supply-demand estimates raised projected 2025-26 durum exports by 10,000 tonnes from March to 5.5 million, a move that trimmed ending stocks by an identical amount to 1.35 million, still well above 496,000 in 2024-25.
For durum, 2025-26 exports were raised to 5.5 million tonnes from 5.40 million tonnes in March, tightening supplies and lowering ending stocks to 1.35 million tonnes from 1.45 million. For 2026-27, the smaller old-crop carryin was offset by a 100,000-tonne cut in feed, waste and dockage to 271,000 tonnes, leaving projected new-crop durum ending stocks steady from last month at 1.25 million tonnes.
In other changes this month, 2025-26 barley exports were increased to 3.7 million tonnes from 3.33 million in March, resulting in a reduction in ending stocks to 1.3 million tonnes from 1.6 million. The average price forecast was raised to $280/tonne from $270. For 2026-27, barley exports were trimmed slightly to 3 million tonnes from 3.03 million, while ending stocks were lowered 200,000 tonnes to 700,000, with the price forecast increased to $285 from $270.
Oat exports for 2025-26 were reduced to 2.37 million tonnes in April from 2.52 million the previous month, contributing to a rise in ending stocks to 950,000 tonnes from 800,00. The average price forecast was raised to $305/tonne from $300. Looking ahead to 2026-27, oat exports were also lowered to 2.37 million tonnes from 2.52 million tonnes, while carry-out stocks were increased 200,000 tonnes to 800,000, with the price forecast lifted to $310 from $300/tonne.
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