Early Forecast Suggests No Above Average Spring Runoff for Saskatchewan

Dec 20, 2022

Mostly dry conditions heading into the winter mean the chances of an above average spring runoff in Saskatchewan are low.

While some areas of the province experienced higher than normal spring and early summer precipitation, the last half of the summer and early fall were dry resulting in drier than normal soil moisture conditions at freeze-up, said the Water Security Agency’s (WSA) recently released 2022 Conditions at Freeze-up Report. The report provides an early indication of areas that are more vulnerable to potentially above or below normal runoff in the spring.

“At this time, there are no areas where WSA believes that there is a heightened risk of above normal spring runoff in 2023,” the agency said in a release.

In fact, the WSA said the main concern now is the potential for surface water supply issues in the province’s southwest region if winter snowfall is below average. Most larger water supply reservoirs across southern and central Saskatchewan have adequate supplies.

The southwest and east-central portions of the province did experience two significant snowfall events this fall that melted, improving near surface soil moisture. However, snow surveys in February 2023 will still be needed to help determine if the moisture will infiltrate into the soil or run off toward reservoirs.

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