February 'Grain Marketing Insights Report' is out

Feb 27, 2024

The latest "Grain Marketing Insights Report" with LeftField Commodity Research is available through Manitoba Crop Alliance.

The report takes a general overview of what's happening in the wheat, barley, corn, flax, and sunflower markets.

According to the report, non-durum wheat supplies are tight with December non-durum exports moving at a record pace for the 2023-2024 crop year at 1.84 million tonnes.
CWRS basis levels have been firm for old crop, while new crop levels have appreciated from very low levels.

Soft barley prices mean barley acreage for 2024 could be down 10 per cent, or around 6.6 million acres. Canadian barley exports are lagging as is the domestic malting volume.
Despite the fall in barley values, the spread between barley and corn prices is still widening at Prairie elevators. LeftField Commodity Research says barley prices will need to sink further if they are to regain share in the feed market.

As for corn, StatsCan reported December 31 corn stocks at 11.3 million tonnes, September to December usage is at 6.65 million tonnes, the second highest ever. Imports into Western Canada were 319,523 tonnes, down from last month but the second highest since June 2022.

Looking at Flax, the market is still very quiet. Canadian flax ending stocks will be comfortable even if exports were to improve in the second half of the crop year, which there is no indication that will happen. The spread between European and Saskatchewan flax prices has widened further which may encourage trade.

For Sunflowers, Manitoba Crop insurance values suggest a shift back toward more confection sunflowers in 2024. Canadian sunflower acreage is projected at 90,000 acres, with 30,000 for confection. LeftField Commodity Research notes that Canadian exports to the U.S. have been limited but could pick up.

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