Final Alberta Yield Estimates Above Average

Oct 07, 2022

With the harvest winding down, final Alberta yield estimates for the 2022 season remain above the five- and 10-year averages.

The weekly Alberta crop report on Friday pegged the average spring wheat yield in the province at 52.9 bu/acre, barley at 74.8 bu, oats at 95.2 bu, canola at 38.2 bu and dry peas at 43.8 bu. Those estimates are relatively little changed from the previous provincial estimates released in September, but are 10% above the five-year average and almost 6% above the 10-year average.

In comparison, the Statistics Canada model-based estimates, also released in September, put the average Alberta spring wheat yield at 58.7 bu/acre, barley at 71.5, oats at 78.9 bu, canola at 41.7 bu, and peas at 41.4 bu.

Quality expectations are also being reported favorably on major crops relative to long-term normal with exception of durum. Hard Red Spring Wheat is expected at 68% No. 1 CW (versus 54% for the five-year average) and is reported in particularly high quality in the Peace. Barley, canola, and dry pea quality expectations are modestly ahead of their long-term averages and oats marginally behind long-term normal quality. Durum is the notable exception, with more than normal of the total provincial crop expected at the No. 2 CW grade.

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Video: Midwest Weather Shock: Flash Drought Turns Into Heavy Rain Threat This Week (2026 Forecast)

A rapidly changing Midwest weather pattern is unfolding in 2026 as areas that recently slipped into abnormal dryness and flash drought conditions are now facing the threat of heavy rain and repeated storm systems.

After a wet spring erased early drought conditions, regions across Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and northern Missouri have quickly dried out again since mid-to-late May. Soil moisture is dropping fast, and crops like corn and soybeans are beginning to feel the stress of rising temperatures and lack of consistent rainfall. Now, weather models show a major shift.

A developing system moving in from the Northern Plains is expected to bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for locally heavy rainfall across the Midwest. While some areas may miss out, others could finally see much-needed relief from the growing dryness. In this video, we break down:

Current drought conditions across the Midwest

Why a flash drought is developing quickly

Timing and path of incoming storm systems

Which states are most likely to see heavy rain

How long this wet pattern could last

Will this rain end the drought or create new flooding risks? Watch the full forecast to find out.