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IGC Lowers World Corn, Soybean Production Forecasts

The International Grains Council on Thursday raised its 2021-22 world wheat production estimate but lowered its outlook for corn and soybeans.

Reflecting the impact of hot, dry weather on crop prospects in South America, the organization dropped its global soybean forecast by 12 million tonnes from its previous report in November to 368 million tonnes, now up just 1 million from the previous year. Weather problems in South America also prompted the cut in expected world corn output, with the IGC now estimating the crop at 1.207 billion tonnes, down 5 million from November but still above 1.129 billion the previous year.

In its January supply-demand update released Wednesday, the USDA estimated 2021/22 world soybean and corn production at 381.78 million and 1.208 billion tonnes, respectively.

On the other hand, the IGC raised its world wheat production estimate by 4 million tonnes from November to 781 million, thanks mainly to larger crops in Australia and Argentina. With the increase, output for the current marketing year now sits 8 million above 2020-21.

All told, the forecast for total world grains production (wheat and coarse grains) is down 1 million tonnes this month to 2.286 billion, versus 2.215 billion the previous year. But with reductions in expected consumption – including feed and industrial use – ending stocks are seen up 1 million tonnes from November to 601 million, versus 602 million in 2020-21.

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