Market Movers to Watch for the Week of June 16th 2024

Jun 13, 2024

Heat dome approaching corn and soybean growing regions

This week there are 5 key reports to watch that could have significant impacts on commodity markets the week of June 16, 2024. This Farms.com column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article shares issues to watch the following week, issues that may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks.

By Devin Lashley
Farms.com Risk Management Intern

1. Keep an eye on the weather across major corn and soy growing regions across the Midwest as a heat dome appears to be moving its way in. Temperatures are expected in the 90s°F.

A heat dome with temperatures above 80 degrees at night and daytime temps at 100+ degrees in the first half of July during the reproductive stage (pollination) in corn would add significant upwards pressure grain futures as it would threaten crop yields and create some fund buying.

2. Keep an eye on China as it is experiencing a record-breaking heat wave with temperatures up to 107°F, leading to droughts and possibly leading to reduced harvest for us to 30-40 percent of corn and soybean crops.

This could translate to higher imports, and a win for the U.S. export program after Brazil announced a new 20% tax on corn and soybeans which suggest the crop is not as big as everyone thinks it is. China is the largest global importer of corn and soybeans, and it could get even larger in the coming months.

3. The USDA Crop Progress Report will be released Monday, June 17th, and will likely show corn planting to be completed, as well as a vast majority of the corn and soy crop to be emerged. Crop conditions will fall 2-4% in both corn and soybeans.

4. The USDA Cattle on Feed Report comes out Friday, June 21st. It should be a friendly report that will show cattle on feed down vs. a year ago similar to last month. U.S. domestic demand remains strong offsetting softer export demand.

5.The Drought Monitor for the U.S. will be released Thursday, June 20th, and might show a slight change in trend as far as droughts and dryness are concerned. This week's drought monitor showed the complete erasure of droughts across the Midwest as the last of the major rains passed through.

With that being said, as a heat dome approaches the eastern part of the U.S. it's likely we may see minor droughts reappearing in the medium term.

For daily information and updates on agriculture commodity marketing and price risk management for North American farmers, producers, and agribusiness visit the Farms.com Risk Management Website to subscribe to the program.

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.