On Thursday afternoon, Sept. 25, USDA will publish the results of their latest quarterly hog inventory survey. Hog profits have been strong this year and I am expecting modest growth in the swine herd. I expect the September market hog inventory to be up 0.6% from last year.
Calculations by economists at Iowa State University estimate the typical Iowa farrow-to-finish operation earned a profit of $52.58 for each hog marketed in August. August was the 17th consecutive profitable month. August profits were the highest since June 2021. During the first 8 months of 2025 hog profits averaged $27.11 per head marketed.
I’m predicting that USDA will tell us that summer (June-August) farrowings were down 0.4%. I’m predicting fall farrowings intentions to be up 0.7% and winter (December-February) intentions will be up 1.0%. If pigs per litter are up as I expect, then the pig crop in the second half of 2025 should be up 1.4%. My calculations put fall hog slaughter at 100.2% of a year ago with winter slaughter at 100.9% and spring hog slaughter up 1.6% compared to March-May 2025.
Recent hog slaughter has lower than implied by the June market hog inventory. U.S. hog slaughter over the last 16 weeks (since the beginning of June) has been down 2.3% year-over-year. The heavy weight market hog inventory in the June Hogs and Pigs Report implied slaughter during this period would be up 0.1% from a year ago. The difference is larger than usual. The June Hogs and Pigs Report implies fall slaughter will be up a bit less than 1%.
Iowa State University calculated cost of production in August at $63.01/cwt (liveweight) or $84.01/cwt carcass weight. ISU calculations say August was the second month this year with hog cost of production lower than the month before. Lower feed cost is the reason. USDA is forecasting the nation’s first 16 billion corn crop.
USDA is forecasting the average farm price of corn during the 2025-26 marketing year at $3.90 per bushel. This is 40 cents less than the estimate for the 2024-25 year and 65 cents less than the actual for the 2023-24 marketing year. The futures market is more bullish on corn prices. Corn contracts with 2026 delivery months are trading for $4.52 give or take a dime. The cash price for corn in Omaha in recent weeks has been under $4 per bushel, but has been steadily rising.
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