Oat, Barley Outlooks Mixed; All Wheat Little Changed

Canadian barley supplies won’t build as much as expected in 2016-17, while oats will tighten significantly.
Meanwhile, new-crop all wheat ending stocks are forecast little changed on the year.

Updated supply-demand estimates released by Agriculture Canada late Wednesday afternoon pegged new-crop barley ending stocks at 1.65 million tonnes, down from the government’s April estimate of 1.85 million although still 250,000 above the previous year.

Ag Canada raised its new-crop barley seeded area estimate slightly from last month (up about 100,000 acres to 6.77 million) to reflect Statistics Canada’s April planting intentions report. That actually pushed expected barley production up 100,000 tonnes from last month to 8.5 million, however, that increase was completely offset by upward revisions to expected exports and domestic use.

In fact, the entire reduction in 2016-17 barley ending stocks was due to a 200,000-tonne reduction in the carryin from the old-crop marketing year to 1.4 million tonnes.

As for oats, new-crop ending stocks are now projected at just 725,000 tonnes, versus 975,000 last month and 800,000 in 2015-16.