By Barry Ward
Lower crop prices and a mix of higher and lower input costs have set the stage for another challenging profit outlook for Ohio commodity crops in 2025. Supply and demand fundamentals have both continued to negatively affect commodity crop prices. Some input costs are projected to be higher while some are expected to be steady to lower. The result of this set of economic fundamentals is an outlook for low to negative margins for the 2025 corn, soybean and wheat crops.
Production costs for Ohio field crops are forecast to be steady to slightly higher than last year with higher machinery and equipment costs leading the way. Lower crop protection chemical prices are offset by an expected increase in product need. Fuel and crop insurance costs are also projected to be slightly lower but land rents continue to increase on average.
Variable costs for corn in Ohio for 2025 are projected to range from $502 to $614 per acre depending on land productivity. The trend line corn yield (190.1 bpa) scenario included in the corn enterprise budget shows an increase in variable costs of 2.4% with an increase in fixed costs of 3.4% due to higher rents and machinery/equipment costs.
Variable costs for 2025 Ohio soybeans are projected to range from $264 to $298 per acre. Variable costs for trend-line soybeans (56.8 bpa) are expected to decrease 2% in 2025 compared to 2024 while fixed costs are expected to increase 2.9% in 2025.
Wheat variable expenses for 2025 are projected to range from $231 to $288 per acre. The trend line wheat yield (81.5 bpa) scenario included in the wheat enterprise budget shows a decrease in variable costs of 2.3% with an increase in fixed costs of 2.7%.
Returns will be mixed depending on crop price change throughout the rest of the year. Grain prices used as assumptions in the 2025 crop enterprise budgets are $4.20/bushel for corn, $10.20/bushel for soybeans and $6.00/bushel for wheat (wheat price set in October using the September ’25 Futures price at that time).
Source : osu.edu