This month’s 2013/14 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates include marginally lower production and lower exports compared to last month, resulting in a slight increase in ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised 100,000 bales to 3.9 million based on revised stocks data for July 31, 2013. Domestic mill use is unchanged, but exports are lowered 200,000 bales due to increased competition for market share, mainly from India. The forecast range for the marketing-year average price received by producers is lowered 3 cents on each end to 69 to 85 cents per pound, reflecting recent market activity and prospects.
The world 2013/14 cotton supply and demand estimates show higher ending stocks resulting mainly from increased production. Production is raised 1.0 million bales, based on improved crop prospects for India, Brazil, and Greece, partially offset by reductions for the United States and Syria. A small net decrease in global consumption includes reductions for India and South Africa, partially offset by increases for Indonesia and Turkey. Higher estimated world trade reflects increases in both imports and exports for India,
as well as higher imports for Indonesia and Turkey. The China balance sheet is largely unchanged this month, based on currently announced reserve purchase, release, and import quota policies for 2013/14.
Source: USDA