Low Herd Numbers Limit Beef Production and Raise Grocery Costs
Beef production in the United States continues to face supply pressure as cow slaughter dropped 19 percent during the fall quarter compared with 2024. USDA data shows the decline reflects fewer cattle available rather than a sudden production slowdown.
James Mitchell, agricultural economist with the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, said herd reductions over recent years explain the drop. “In 2023, we had a situation where producers were actively culling deep into their herds,” Mitchell said. “In 2025, there are simply fewer cows to slaughter.”
Cattle inventories reached historic lows in January 2025, with only 27.9 million beef cows and heifers reported nationwide. Mitchell projects a slaughter rate near 42 percent for the year, reflecting limited herd numbers.
Low supplies have driven cattle prices higher, creating strong returns for producers. USDA data shows fed cattle prices climbed to $242 per hundredweight in parts of the Southern Plains during summer 2025.
“We had strong profitability the last couple of years,” Mitchell said. “Acknowledging that input costs are still high, we’ve had a couple of years of really good production and good pastures.”
Even though culling remains standard practice, usually removing 10 to 20 percent of herds each year, total slaughter remains constrained. Between late August and mid November, producers slaughtered just over 543,000 head.
While producers benefit, consumers face rising beef costs. “With slaughter down, you have less lean trimmings that you would use to make ground beef,” Mitchell said. “And so what we've seen this year is higher ground beef prices — and ground has typically been a competitive product.”
Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows ground chuck prices averaged $6.33 per pound in September 2025, up sharply from $5.19 in September 2023. Mitchell does not expect relief soon, stating, “The fact is that consumer prices are high, and they're probably going to get higher.”
These trends suggest beef prices will remain elevated until herd expansion becomes possible, which experts say is unlikely in the near future.