SD Wheat Yields Expected Better Than Southern States, Official Says

By Jackson Dircks

While the national wheat crop is projected to be the smallest in decades, South Dakota’s crop isn’t expected to see large reductions.

The United States Department of Agriculture recently released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. The report projects both U.S. and worldwide crop supply and demands for the 2026-2027 marketing year. All U.S. wheat production is projected down 424 million bushels from last year, more than a 20% decline.

However, South Dakota isn’t expected to see a huge crop reduction. That’s according to Jonathan Kleinjan, the Executive Director of the South Dakota Wheat Commission.

“Well, in South Dakota we’re not seeing quite as big a yield reduction as some of the other big states. So, for example, Kansas is forecast to be down 27.5% from last year. Texas is down. I mean, Texas, Oklahoma [and] Kansas are all down around that 25% give or take,” Kleinjan said. “South Dakota, we're only forecast to be 4% lower. The drought hasn’t hit us quite as hard up here.”

Although the state could use rain in certain areas, like the southwestern part, Kleinjan told SDPB it’s not been a huge concern for wheat producers.

“Overall, we’re in way better shape than some of the states to the south of us,” Kleinjan said.

While that drought is an unfortunate reality for the producers struggling, it’s also an opportunity for South Dakota producers to cash in on better prices for the crop.

“I mean, obviously, you never, you don't wish hard times on anyone, but the fact that the winter wheat crop is going to be lower in the main states of Kansas, Oklahoma, that's added quite a bit of price to the bushels that will be produced this year,” Kleinjan said. “So, you know, we were looking at probably $4 winter wheat here earlier this year, and now we're probably going to be looking at, you know, $5.5 to maybe $6, so, I mean, that helps.”

Agtegra Cooperative showed on Wednesday that most local cash bids were above $6/bushel. The increased prices are a welcoming sign to wheat producers who've been dealing with the spike in fertilizer prices following the Iran war. Nitrogen fertilizer, one of the products caught in the crosshairs of the war, is something wheat farmers utilize for increased crop yields.