Semi-Annual Global Fertilizer Outlook

 

In Brazil, improved commodity prices continue to fuel the run of strong farmer margins. “This year, we expect fertilizer demand in Brazil to increase for the fifth straight year. Year-to-date imports have risen 8% YOY, a 23% increase on 2015,”according to Matheus Almeida, Senior Analyst – Farm Inputs at Rabobank.

 

In India, a strong kharif season and local government reforms contributed to a surge in local sales – the local government reported a 15% YOY increase in fertilizer sales for the first half of the year. 

 

Demand has picked up in other regions too. In Australia, Rabobank expects winter crop production to increase 63% YOY, which has already translated to a 26% YOY increase in nitrogen sales in 1H 2020. 

 

Heavy supplies and growing production capacity will continue to weigh on prices across the nutrient complex. “In the immediate term, we expect urea and phosphate prices to continue to be supported by demand until the start of Q2 2021. Once seasonal demand from the northern hemisphere subsides, markets will again be exposed to heavy supplies,” says Almeida. The International Fertilizer Association expects another 9m metric tons of urea production capacity – a 4.5% increase and well above their forecast demand growth of 1%. Almost half of that new capacity is likely to appear in India, reducing its activity in global markets. 

 

“On an encouraging note for fertilizer suppliers, we see a more positive time ahead for potash markets. We expect that importers in China and India will continue to cover inventories, and sustained demand in the US and Brazil will ensure demand remains,” concludes Almeida. On the supply side, current low prices may limit production in high-cost plants and delay new projects coming online. As a result, potash prices are expected to increase at a constant rate over 1H 2021. 

 

 

 

Video: From Conventional to Regenerative: Will Groeneveld’s Journey Back to the Land

"You realize you've got a pretty finite number of years to do this. If you ever want to try something new, you better do it."

That mindset helped Will Groeneveld take a bold turn on his Alberta grain farm. A lifelong farmer, Will had never heard of regenerative agriculture until 2018, when he attended a seminar by Kevin Elmy that shifted his worldview. What began as curiosity quickly turned into a deep exploration of how biology—not just chemistry—shapes the health of our soils, crops and ecosystems.

In this video, Will candidly reflects on his family’s farming history, how the operation evolved from a traditional mixed farm to grain-only, and how the desire to improve the land pushed him to invite livestock back into the rotation—without owning a single cow.

Today, through creative partnerships and a commitment to the five principles of regenerative agriculture, Will is reintroducing diversity, building soil health and extending living roots in the ground for as much of the year as possible. Whether it’s through intercropping, zero tillage (which he’s practiced since the 1980s) or managing forage for visiting cattle, Will’s approach is a testament to continuous learning and a willingness to challenge old norms.

Will is a participant in the Regenerative Agriculture Lab (RAL), a social innovation process bringing together producers, researchers, retailers and others to co-create a resilient regenerative agriculture system in Alberta. His story highlights both the potential and humility required to farm with nature, not against it.