Soybean monitoring predicts sharp decline in yield

Sep 25, 2025

The latest Soybean Growth Monitoring Yield Prediction report from University of Missouri Extension predicts drastic shifts to lower soybean yields due to a lack of rainfall.

In a news release, MU Extension soybean agronomy specialist Andre Reis says the latest yield predictions have averaged 3-6 bushels per acre lower than in the previous report.

“August 2025 was the second-driest August on record, with only 0.79 inches of statewide average rainfall,” says Zachary Leasor, MU Extension state climatologist.

According to Leasor, the U.S. Drought Monitor map for Missouri released on Sept. 4 shows that 93.68% of Missouri is at least abnormally dry following an unusually wet spring.

The southeastern and southwestern parts of Missouri are hardest hit, but the rest of the state except for northwestern Missouri is showing signs of drought.

The yield model now points to below-average results for most of the state, especially for soybean fields planted after April 26.

Early-planted soybeans are less affected since the drought onset occurred late in the seed-filling stage. Soybean crops in northwestern Missouri also are less affected, but soil water content has been depleted nearly statewide, says Reis.

Reis urges growers to consider harvest operations.

“Soybeans in drought-affected areas will senesce earlier, and seed moisture will decline rapidly,” he says.

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Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.