Spring and summer lean hog futures have lost momentum as the feared “marketing hole” has not materialized. Hog slaughter since early March is running slightly above last year and carcass weights remain steady, keeping pork supplies adequate and the pork cutout stuck below $100/cwt.
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Lean Hog Futures Have Been Trending Lower Since Early March
Lean hog futures have been trending lower since early March and spring/summer contracts are back to where they were at the start of the year. In early 2026, speculation about disease losses and the potential for a marketing hole in the spring resulted in significant premiums built in the spring and summer contracts. So far, the marketing hole has yet to materialize. Hog slaughter in the last four weeks has averaged 2.46M, 1.4% higher than a year ago. Since the first week of March, hog slaughter has been 24.6 million head, 160k head (+0.7%) higher than a year ago. Hog carcass weights have been steady for the past three months and last week were 1.1% higher than last year. With adequate supply (+1.8% y/y) and stable demand, pork prices have been range bound. The pork cutout steadily improved between early January and early March, breaking above $100/cwt. A simple linear trend based on prices in Jan/Feb put June values at over $110/cwt. But we are nearing the end of April, and the value of the pork cutout is still hovering below $100/cwt.
As with baseball, hope springs eternal in the pork market. At the start of the year, talk of tight supplies and effect of high beef prices on demand for other proteins had spec money chasing the market higher. Now that spring is here and pork loin prices are stuck in place despite record ground beef prices, it is no wonder that spec money has been cutting back some of its net long position.
Where does the market go from here? If the USDA ‘Hogs and Pigs’ survey is to be believed, weekly hog slaughter between now and 4th of July should be about the same as last year. So far, the slaughter numbers have not deviated much from the March survey so we have no reason to question them, but we may if slaughter remains above 2.4 million in the second half of May. Full weekly hog slaughter in late May and June of 2025 averaged 2.367 million (non holiday). For reference, we have included where the value of the various pork primals was last week (weekly average) and the % change in the value of the cutout and primals between early May and second week of June (expiration of the June contract). Last year we saw a double digit increase in price across all primals as slaughter declined under 2.4 million. At this point we still think price risk for late spring and summer remains skewed to the upside, especially as warm weather, consumers looking for value and start of the grilling season kicks retail demand in high gear.
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