By Adam Russell
Hog prices, wholesale cuts and export markets are sending mixed signals that matter to producers and shoppers nationwide, according to a Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service expert.
U.S. pork production is up 1.3% so far this year compared to 2025, though output has eased about half a percent over the past four weeks, said David Anderson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension economist in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics. Even with supplies holding steady, hog prices have not kept pace with last year’s levels, leaving what Anderson calls a pricing conundrum.
Farrow-to-finish producers have logged 25 straight months of profitability, according to an Iowa State University model Anderson tracks, a sharp turnaround from 2023-2024, when losses reached as much as $50 per head in the worst months. This year’s profits, which have ranged from about $2.60 to $52 per head, have been driven mostly by cheaper feed and corn rather than strong hog prices.
“We’re producing about the same amount of pork as we did last year, yet prices have really lagged behind,” Anderson said. “We haven’t seen the increase, and it’s kind of a conundrum.”
Seasonal swings drive hog and wholesale prices
Pork production and prices typically follow a predictable seasonal rhythm, Anderson said. Output is lowest in the summer, when heat makes it harder for hogs to gain weight, and highest in the fall and early in the year.
Source : tamu.edu