Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2015/16 are raised this month on both increased beginning stocks and larger winter wheat production. Beginning stocks are higher with a 5- million-bushel reduction in 2014/15 exports partly offset by a 2-million-bushel reduction in imports. Projected production for 2015/16 is up 34 million bushels mainly on improved prospects for the hard red winter wheat crop in the Central Plains following the late season rains. However, early harvest reports indicate that some areas receiving excessive rainfall have lodging and increased disease pressure. Feed use for 2015/16 is raised 15 million bushels to 195 million, and ending stocks increased 21 million bushels to 814 million. These would be the largest ending stocks since 2010/11. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.10 per bushel on both ends to $4.40 to $5.40.
Increased export prospects in Russia and Ukraine, and lower projected exports in Argentina this month, reflect those countries’ wheat output changes. An increase in world feed and residual use outpaces growth in wheat supplies, pushing ending stocks slightly down.
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Source: USDA