The USDA’s first US corn and soybean yield estimates since September are expected to show smaller crops.
Due for release on Friday at noon ET, the USDA crop reports come with the 2025 American corn and soybean harvest essentially now complete. The last reports were released Sept. 12 just as the harvest was beginning, with the record-long US government shutdown scuttling the USDA’s October update in the meantime.
With harvest data now largely in hand, analysts are bracing for cuts to production estimates in both major row crops. A Reuters poll ahead of Friday’s crop production report shows expectations for average corn yields to fall 2.7 bu/acre from September to 184 bu/acre. If realized, total production would decline by 257 million bu, dropping to 16.557 billion. Despite the reduced output, analysts expect USDA’s WASDE report to show a modest increase in corn ending stocks — up 26 million bu to 2.136 billion — as higher-than-anticipated Sept. 1 inventories are factored in.
Soybean estimates are also set for a slight trim. Traders surveyed by Reuters project average soybean yields at 53.1 bu/acre, down 0.4 bu/acre from September. That would reduce total production by about 35 million bu to 4.266 billion. Analysts see ending stocks rising marginally to 304 million bu, compared with 300 million in September, as slower export demand continues to weigh on the balance sheet.
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