Despite continued trade uncertainty with China, the USDA left its 2025-26 US soybean supply-demand numbers unchanged on Tuesday.
The USDA’s monthly supply-demand update held exports and ending stocks for the current marketing year steady from November at 1.635 billion and 290 million bu, respectively, down from 1.882 billion and 316 million the previous year.
Going into the report, traders and analysts were looking for a relatively modest 16-million bu increase in ending stocks from last month. Soybean futures were trading 7-8 cents/bu lower this afternoon.
Under the terms of a trade truce reached between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in late October, China was expected to purchase 12 million tonnes of American soybeans by the end of this year. That deadline was later moved back to February, but as of early December, Beijing had only purchased about 3 million tonnes. After a strong run up in prices following the trade truce, the slow pace of purchases so far has pushed the market back down again.
The USDA also left its estimate of 2025-26 China soybean imports unchanged from November at 112 million tonnes, up from 108 million the previous year.
Global soybean production is increased 800,000 tonnes this month to 422.5 million, reflecting higher crops for Russia and India but lower output for Canada and Ukraine. Global soybean crush for 2025-26 is increased 300,000 tonnes to 365.2 million, mainly on higher supplies in Russia and India. Global soybean exports are lowered 300,000 tonnes on lower shipments for Ukraine and Benin.
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