USDA: Crop Production Report

Jan 11, 2013

Orange Production Down 2 Percent from December Forecast

The United States all orange forecast for the 2012-2013 season is 8.83 million tons, down 2 percent from both the previous forecast and the 2011-2012 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 142 million boxes (6.39 million tons), is down 3 percent from both the December forecast and last season's final utilization. Early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 66.0 million boxes (2.97 million tons), down 1 percent from the December forecast and down 11 percent from last season. Projected droppage is the highest since the 1969-1970 season while size is projected to be below average. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 76.0 million boxes (3.42 million tons), is down 4 percent from the December forecast but up 5 percent from the 2011-2012 crop.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2012-2013 season is 1.61 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from the December forecast but down 1 percent from last season's final yield of 1.63 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.50 gallons per box, down 2 percent from last season's yield of 1.53 gallons per box. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.71 gallons per box, 2 percent lower than last year's final yield of 1.75 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons.

Source: USDA

Video: Wheat Yields in USA and China Threatened by Heat Waves Breaking Enzymes

A new peer reviewed study looks at the generally unrecognized risk of heat waves surpassing the threshold for enzyme damage in wheat.

Most studies that look at crop failure in the main food growing regions (breadbaskets of the planet) look at temperatures and droughts in the historical records to assess present day risk. Since the climate system has changed, these historical based risk analysis studies underestimate the present-day risks.

What this new research study does is generate an ensemble of plausible scenarios for the present climate in terms of temperatures and precipitation, and looks at how many of these plausible scenarios exceed the enzyme-breaking temperature of 32.8 C for wheat, and exceed the high stress yield reducing temperature of 27.8 C for wheat. Also, the study considers the possibility of a compounded failure with heat waves in both regions simultaneously, this greatly reducing global wheat supply and causing severe shortages.

Results show that the likelihood (risk) of wheat crop failure with a one-in-hundred likelihood in 1981 has in today’s climate become increased by 16x in the USA winter wheat crop (to one-in-six) and by 6x in northeast China (to one-in-sixteen).

The risks determined in this new paper are much greater than that obtained in previous work that determines risk by analyzing historical climate patterns.

Clearly, since the climate system is rapidly changing, we cannot assume stationarity and calculate risk probabilities like we did traditionally before.

We are essentially on a new planet, with a new climate regime, and have to understand that everything is different now.