By Anthony Greder
U.S. corn condition fell for the first time in several weeks as intense heat baked much of the country last week, according to USDA NASS' weekly Crop Progress report on Monday. Soybean conditions also declined for the second week in a row.
CORN
-- Crop progress: 84% of corn was silking as of Sunday, July 30, 7 percentage points ahead of 77% last year and 2 points ahead of the five-year average of 82%. Corn in the dough stage was pegged at 29%, 5 percentage points ahead of last year but now equal to the five-year average.
-- Crop condition: Nationally, corn was rated 55% good to excellent, down 2 percentage points from 57% the previous week and below 61% a year ago at this time. Texas, the Dakotas, Kansas and Minnesota showed the largest declines, noted DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman.
SOYBEANS
-- Crop progress: 83% of soybeans were blooming, 6 percentage points ahead of 77% last year and 5 points ahead of the five-year average of 78%. Soybeans setting pods was pegged at 50%, 9 percentage points ahead of last year's 41% and 3 points ahead of the average of 47%.
-- Crop condition: Soybeans were rated 52% good to excellent as of Sunday, down 2 percentage points from 54% last week and below 60% a year ago at this time. "Similar to corn, the largest declines were seen in Kansas, Minnesota and the Dakotas," Hultman said.
WINTER WHEAT
-- Harvest progress: 80% of the crop was harvested as of Sunday, another 12-percentage-point jump from the previous week and now trailing the five-year average by just 3 points. "Ninety-five percent of the winter wheat in Kansas is harvested, while the second-largest producer, Washington, is at 36% harvested," Hultman said.
SPRING WHEAT
-- Crop progress: 97% of spring wheat was headed as of Sunday, 1 percentage point behind the five-year average of 98%.
-- Harvest progress: Spring wheat harvest kicked off last week, with 2% of the nation's crop harvested as of Sunday. That was slightly behind 3% last year and 5% for the five-year average.
-- Crop condition: USDA said 42% of the spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent as of July 30, down 7 percentage points from last week's 49%, and below 70% a year ago. "The good-to-excellent rating for Minnesota dropped from 74% to 54%, and the rating for North Dakota dropped from 54% to 44%," Hultman said.
Last week, DTN/Progressive Farmer participated in the annual Wheat Quality Council's Spring Wheat and Durum Tour in North Dakota. To read more about what scouts saw and their estimates for spring wheat and durum yield potential, see "Spring Wheat Tour Final Results" here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD
After last week's intense heat, this week's forecast dials down temperatures somewhat and turns on the faucet for some parts of the country, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.
"It was a rough week with heat throughout most of the country last week, but this week will be much more manageable for corn and soybeans, especially," Baranick said. "A front remains stalled out from the Central Plains to the Tennessee Valley, and we're likely to see it produce areas of showers and thunderstorms throughout the week, hitting many of the areas that stayed hot and dry last week. South of the front, it remains hot and largely dry outside of the Southeast, with temperatures regularly well into the 90s with a few days above 100 Fahrenheit again, especially for those in Texas and Oklahoma, where the heat will last all week long.
"A few disturbances will go through the Corn Belt, as well as a couple of systems, which should produce more precipitation as well, especially for western areas. The mix of frequent rain and milder temperatures should overall be favorable, but that won't be the case for everyone. The eastern end of the Corn Belt will be mild, but drier, with less chance for rain.
"That might change with a system coming through late in the week and weekend. Models disagree on the track of this system, but it looks to take a trip from the Northern Plains through the Great Lakes Thursday through Sunday. Models certainly have a lot of potential for heavy rain and also some severe weather but could make it through the entire Corn Belt with widespread meaningful rain. It still comes with thunderstorms, and the potential to be missed, but it's a good signal for a meaningful storm system. The system will reinforce this week's front, but likely a bit farther south for next week."
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