USDA Oil Crops Outlook

Based on larger than expected March soybean stocks, USDA raised its forecast of domestic crush this month by 20 million bushels to 1.635 billion. Also, U.S. soybean exports for 2012/13 are forecast up 5 million bushels this month to 1.35 billion. An offsetting change in the residual left the forecast of U.S. season-ending soybean stocks unchanged at an unusually tight 125 million bushels.

Global soybean production for 2012/13 is estimated 1.6 million metric tons higher this month to 269.6 million due to better crop outlooks for Paraguay and Uruguay. Shipping delays from South America prompted USDA to lower its forecast of China’s 2012/13 soybean imports by 2 million tons this month to 61 million. Global exports of soybean meal in 2012/13 may only edge up to 58.6 million tons, versus 58.3 million in 2011/12, because of lagging production for Brazil and Argentina.

Source: USDA