The U.S. soybean crop for 2013/14 is projected to increase 12 percent to a record large 3.39 billion bushels based on a recovery in the yield to 44.5 bushels per acre. Robust export
competition may temper an increase in U.S. soybean exports to 1.45 billion bushels from 1.35 billion in 2012/13. Strong gains are also anticipated for the 2013/14 soybean crush,
which is forecast up 60 million bushels to 1.695 billion. U.S. season-ending soybean stocks may more than double in 2013/14 to 265 million bushels. The wider gap between soybean
supplies and use are seen reducing the U.S. average farm price in 2013/14 to $9.50-$11.50 per bushel compared to this year’s forecast of $14.30 per bushel.
A strong rebound for the U.S. crop is expected to raise global soybean production in 2013/14 by 6 percent to 285.5 million metric tons. For Brazil, diminishing returns for soybeans could slow area gains for 2013/14 to only 2.7 percent (to 28.25 million hectares), which would limit growth in production to 85 million tons versus 83.5 million this year. The Argentine soybean crop could increase to 54.5 million tons in 2013/14 from 51 million this year assuming typical yields and a 3- percent increase in area. Soybean imports for China in 2013/14—with growth in crushing and a restoration of stock levels—are projected up to 69 million tons from a revised 2012/13 forecast of 59 million tons.
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Source: USDA