SUGAR: Beginning stocks for 2015/16 are increased 91,482 short tons, raw value (STRV) due to increases in 2014/15 production (53,500) and imports (37,982) with no change in 2014/15 total use. Total 2015/16 sugar production is projected at 8.800 million STRV, an increase of 35,000 over last month. The entire increase is attributable to increased cane sugar production in Florida based on the crop forecast made in the National Agricultural Statistics Service’s (NASS’s) August 2015 Crop
Production. Beet sugar for the 2015/16 August-July crop year is forecast at 5.163 million STRV, an increase of 45,000 based on NASS’s sugarbeet crop forecast and an upward revision to projected sucrose content to 17.5 percent based on processors’ reports. National yield is forecast at a record 29.9 tons/acre, the same as projected last month. Area harvested is up 4,000 acres from a previous forecast to 1.144 million acres.
Due to the early start to the harvest, the entire increase in sugar is expected in August and September adding a net 45,000 STRV to 2014/15 production, now estimated at 4.825 million. Imports for 2015/16 are projected at 3.369 million STRV based on an upward projection of high-tier tariff imports to 15,000 and a very small revision to imports from Mexico resulting from a difference in rounding made by the Commerce Department in estimating the Target Quantity of U.S. Sugar Needs as defined in the CVD Suspension Agreement. With no change in total use, ending stocks are projected at 1.780 million STRV, implying an ending stocksto-use ratio of 14.6 percent.
Mexico beginning stocks for 2015/16 are estimated at 836,774 metric tons (MT), down 190,616 from last month because of an upward estimate of 2014/15 deliveries for consumption to 4.441million MT. Production for 2015/16 is unchanged at 6.0 million. Deliveries for 2015/16 are increased by 192,477 MT to 4.501 million MT. It is assumed that per capita sweetener consumption is unchanged from 2014/15 at 49.4 kilograms and that consumption of high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) is the same as that estimated for 2014/15; i.e., 1.420 million MT, dry weight. Ending stocks for 2015/16 are forecast residually at 832,564 MT, down 31.5 percent from last month. The implied stocks-to-consumption ratio is 18.5 percent.
Source: USDA