WASDE: Global Coarse Grain Supplies for 2012/13 are Projected 2.1 Million tons Higher

Feb 08, 2013

COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected higher this month as lower expected exports outweigh an increase in projected domestic usage. Corn exports are projected 50 million bushels lower based on the sluggish pace of sales and shipments to date and prospects for more competition from Brazil. Corn use for ethanol production is unchanged, but corn use for sweeteners and starch is raised 20 million bushels, boosting projected food, seed, and industrial use. Projected corn ending stocks are raised 30 million bushels. The projected range for the season-average farm price for corn is lowered 20 cents at the midpoint and narrowed to $6.75 to $7.65 per bushel. Reported monthly prices received by farmers to date continue to reflect forward sales made at prices below prevailing cash market bids.

Usage changes for 2012/13 are also made this month for sorghum and barley. Sorghum feed and residual use is projected 25 million bushels lower, but offset by a 20-million-bushel increase in food, seed, and industrial use and a 5-million-bushel increase in exports. Projected barley exports are lowered 1 million bushels, based on indications of slower-than-expected shipments. Barley ending stocks are increased by the same amount. The projected range for the sorghum farm price is lowered 15 cents at the midpoint and narrowed to $6.70 to $7.60 per bushel. The barley farm price range is narrowed 5 cents on each end to $6.15 to $6.65 per bushel.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected 2.1 million tons higher as a decrease in beginning stocks is more than offset by a 2.9-million-ton increase in production. Lower 2012/13 beginning stocks mostly reflect an increase in 2011/12 corn exports for Brazil and revisions to the Paraguay corn series that lower 2011/12 corn area and yield. Global 2012/13 corn production is raised 2.1 million tons with increases for Brazil, Mexico, India, and Ukraine more than offsetting a reduction for Argentina. Brazil production is raised 1.5 million tons based on higher reported area and yields for the first-season crop and good
early prospects for second-season corn. Mexico production is increased 0.8 million tons with higher reported area for the summer crop. Production is raised 0.6 million tons for India on higher area as indicated by the latest sowing progress reports. Ukraine production is increased 0.4 million tons on higher reported yields. Argentina production is lowered 1.0 million tons as persistent dryness in January and early February lowers yield prospects, particularly for late-planted corn.

Global 2012/13 production is also higher this month for sorghum, barley, oats, and rye. Sorghum production is raised 0.4 million tons for Mexico with higher area and yields for the summer crop, but lowered 0.2 million tons for Australia with reduced prospects for area and yields. Global barley, oats, and rye production are up a combined 0.6 million tons on larger reported crops for the FSU-12 countries.

Global coarse grain trade for 2012/13 is higher mostly reflecting increased imports of barley for Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Tunisia and higher sorghum imports for Mexico and Japan. World corn imports and exports are raised only slightly, but significant shifts are made among countries. Corn imports are raised for EU-27 and China, but lowered for Egypt, Syria, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia. Corn exports are raised for Brazil and Ukraine, but lowered for the United
States and Argentina. Global corn consumption for 2012/13 is lowered with a reduction in world feed and residual usage. Corn feed and residual use is lowered 2.0 million tons for Brazil, 1.0 million tons for Egypt, and 0.4 million tons for Argentina, but raised 2.0 million tons for EU-27 and 0.5 million tons for China. Global corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 2.1 million tons higher with the largest increases expected for Brazil and the United States.

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Source: USDA

Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.