Market prices are leaving little to no room for profit for spring wheat growers, says an analyst.
Ty Kehrig, vice-president of Exceed Grain Marketing, said cash prices vary by region but were generally in the mid-$7 per bushel range as of Aug. 7.
“With current cash bids, you need the yield,” he said.
That’s because costs such as fertilizer, chemicals and land rent have not come down the way grain prices have.
“At today’s current prices, it’s not a money-making thing,” he said.
“If you take off a below average crop, the gross revenue just sometimes isn’t enough.”
Minneapolis spring wheat futures have trended down since peaking in 2022, shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine. They bottomed out in mid-2024 and have been flat ever since.
Saskatchewan spring wheat farmers would need a price of $5.74 to $7.05 to cover their variable expenses this year, depending on which soil zone they are in, according to Saskatchewan Agriculture’s Crop Planning Guide 2025.
They would need a price of $8.54 to $10.46 to cover their total expenses.
GrainFox analyst Neil Townsend agrees that it’s going to be a tough year for Canada’s wheat growers.
“Farmers are being tested in terms of their break-even points and turning a profit,” he said.
However, every operation has different cost structures and yields, so posting a loss is not a foregone conclusion.
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