Why Predicting Water Is One of Alberta Farmers’ Toughest Challenges

Water has always been one of Alberta’s greatest uncertainties. One year, producers worry about reservoirs running low. The next, torrential rain floods fields and swells rivers. As weather becomes more variable, knowing how much water will be available—and when—is becoming just as important as having the infrastructure to deliver it.

Behind the scenes, researchers are developing increasingly sophisticated forecasting tools that combine decades of hydrology research with artificial intelligence and machine learning. Their goal isn’t to eliminate uncertainty—no model can—but to give farmers, irrigation districts and water managers better information to plan ahead, whether that’s preparing for drought, managing reservoirs or responding to flood risks.

Alberta Seed Guide spoke with Dr. Evan Davies, a professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Alberta, about how water forecasting works, why predicting streamflow is so challenging, and why the next few years could bring significant advances for Alberta producers.

Alberta Seed Guide: Water availability has been a major concern for Alberta farmers, especially after recent drought years. Why are water forecasting models becoming so important?
Evan Davies: It’s helpful to think about water management in three parts: water supply, water demand and water management. On the supply side, we’re talking about precipitation, snowpack and streamflow — the natural processes that provide water. On the demand side, we have agriculture, municipalities and industry all competing for that resource. For farmers specifically, demand is influenced by the crops being grown, how many acres are under production, and the irrigation technologies being used.

Then there’s the management side. In Alberta, water is managed through water licences, irrigation districts and reservoirs. Those systems help balance supply and demand, particularly in years when water is scarce. As climate change increases variability in weather patterns, having better forecasting tools becomes increasingly important because they help us anticipate shortages and make more informed management decisions.