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Ag trade report on China a good sign

Ag trade report on China a good sign

The sector wants to see commitments turn into shipments, an industry rep said

By Diego Flammini
Staff Writer
Farms.com

China’s purchases of U.S. ag goods during the first year of the Phase 1 trade agreement between the two countries is a positive note for the industry, an ag economist said.

“We’re certainly trending in the right direction,” Dr. John Newton, chief economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, told Farms.com.

As of Oct. 23, China has bought $23.6 billion in U.S. farm products, the Interim Report on the Economic and Trade Agreement between the U.S. and China says.

That figure amounts to about 71 percent of China’s intended ag purchases set out in the Phase 1 agreement representatives from the two countries signed in January.

The trade deal went into effect on Feb. 14, meaning March is the first full month the agreement was in place.

The report accounts for sales through the first eight months of the year and sales expected to take place based on outstanding shipments to China.

To make good on its intended purchases in the first year of the agreement, China would have to buy nearly $13 billion in additional farm products.

“The report acknowledged that the purchase target of $36.5 billion was unlikely to be achieved this year due to COVID-19 issues but, certainly, exports to China are going to be a lot stronger this year than they have been over the past few years.”

The report, a joint publication between the United States Department of Agriculture and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, highlighted five commodities that have experienced export growth to China this year.

Outstanding corn sales, for example, are at an all-time high of 8.7 million tons. And pork exports hit an all-time record in the first five months of 2020.

The soybean, sorghum and beef sectors have also benefited from the deal thus far.

“China’s recent purchases of U.S. soybeans has been a helpful development for producers,” the American Soybean Association told Farms.com in a written statement. “It is our understanding that the products have to reach China by the end of the year to count towards the 2020 Phase 1 target.”

These increase in exports have led to better prices, Newton said.

“It’s great news when you think about what corn prices and pork prices have done in recent months,” Newton said. “After the last seven months of what we’ve been seeing with demand destruction because of COVID-19, higher prices are certainly a breath of fresh air.”


Trending Video

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Video: US “Flash Drought” Worst in 133-160 Years + Disease taking a Bite out of US 2025 Corn/Soybean Crops


A dry August and a “flash drought” in the ECB (Eastern Corn Belt) the driest top 10 to 15 years in 150 to 160 years (Ohio the driest in 133 years) plus disease is taking a bite out of the 2025 U.S. corn and soybean crops.
It's going to be an early harvest. This could be the start of the 89-year drought cycle that may have been delayed until 2026 as La Nina maybe returning.
The USDA September crop report is all about record corn ears and record soybean counts but the October USDA crop report will be about pod and ear weights.
Stats Canada reported higher forecasts for the 2025 Canadian Prairies all wheat and canola crops vs. last year based on satellite imagery but are they overestimating production?
The 2025 Great ON Yield Tour and Quebec crop tours are projecting corn and soybean crops below the 10-year average.
China's Vice Commerce Ministry Li Chenggang visits Washington this week as we continue to connect the dots is a positive sign towards a China/U.S. trade deal. But will U.S. farmers have a winter without China as they buy more soybeans from Uruguay/Argentina? U.S. Northern Plain soybean farmers are seeing red with flat prices at $8.97/bu!
U.S. corn exports on record pace up 99% vs. last year.
Fund short covering continues in corn futures bottom is in!