Re-Instated July Cattle Inventory Shows Continued Herd Contraction

By Bernt Nelson

Reinstated after its 2024 cancellation, USDA’s July Cattle Inventory report offers a critical midyear snapshot of the U.S. cattle herd, including an estimate of the year’s calf crop. Released alongside the monthly Cattle on Feed report, the two datasets together provide a more comprehensive view of supply trends and herd dynamics  key themes explored in this Market Intel.
 

The Reports

July Cattle Inventory

According to the July Cattle Inventory report, the inventory of all cattle and calves in the U.S. on July 1 was 94.2 million head, down 1% from 95.4 million head on July 1, 2023 (Figure 1). All cows and heifers that have calved are estimated at 38.1 million head, down 1% from 2023. The 2025 calf crop is estimated at 33.1 million head, down 1% from last year and the smallest on record. The change in calf crop reflects data reported in the January Cattle Inventory report since the July report was cancelled for 2024. All other changes are compared to 2023. Beef cows were estimated at 28.7 million head, also down 1% from 2023 and a record low since data started being collected in 1973.

*The change in calf crop reflects data reported in the January Cattle Inventory report since the July report was cancelled for 2024. All other changes are compared to 2023.

This Cattle Inventory report also estimates the total number of cattle and calves in all feedlots in the U.S. as opposed to the monthly Cattle on Feed report that only estimates the number of cattle and calves on feed in feedlots with 1,000 or more head capacity. USDA estimates all cattle and calves on feed in the U.S. is 13 million head, down 1% from 2023, and the lowest since 2017. Cattle in feedlots with 1,000-head capacity or more represent 85.6% of all cattle on feed.

The inventory of beef replacement heifers over 500 pounds was estimated at 3.7 million, down 100,000 head, or 3%, from 2023, while other heifers were estimated at 7.4 million, down 200,000 head or 3%. These heifers are the cattle that could be held back for breeding purposes. This is an indicator that contraction in the U.S. beef herd is continuing.