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Canadian Farmers Face Weaker Soybean Yields Ahead

Canadian Farmers Face Weaker Soybean Yields Ahead
Sep 02, 2025
By Farms.com

Statistics Canada reports lower yields across provinces

Statistics Canada forecasts that Canadian soybean production will decline in 2025, reflecting weaker yields across major producing provinces. Nationally, output is projected to fall by 7.3% year over year to 7.0 million tonnes.  

The decline is linked to a drop in yields, which are expected to decrease by 8.5% to 45.0 bushels per acre. Harvested area, however, is anticipated to rise slightly, up 1.3% to 5.7 million acres. 

Ontario, the largest soybean-producing province, is projected to experience the steepest reduction. Farmers there are expected to harvest 4.0 million tonnes in 2025, down 8.8% from the previous year. This comes as harvested area falls by 7.0% to 2.9 million acres, with yields also slipping 1.9% to 50.9 bushels per acre. 

In Manitoba, soybean production is forecast at 1.6 million tonnes, a decrease of 5.3% compared with 2024. The province is set to expand harvested acres by 15.6% to 1.6 million. However, this gain is overshadowed by a sharp 18.0% drop in yields, which are projected at just 36.1 bushels per acre, largely due to dry conditions. 

Quebec is also expected to see a decline. Production is forecast to fall 6.2% to 1.3 million tonnes in 2025. While harvested area is projected to increase by 4.6% to 1.1 million acres, yields are expected to decline by 10.3% to 44.5 bushels per acre, limiting overall output. 

According to Statistics Canada, the outlook highlights how weather stress and yield declines are shaping soybean production in 2025. Despite modest acreage growth, reduced productivity across Ontario, Manitoba, and Quebec is expected to lower national totals. 

You may also be interested in reading some of the articles below to learn more details for other crop forecasts.    

Photo Credit: Statistics Canada


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Wheat Yields in USA and China Threatened by Heat Waves Breaking Enzymes

Video: Wheat Yields in USA and China Threatened by Heat Waves Breaking Enzymes

A new peer reviewed study looks at the generally unrecognized risk of heat waves surpassing the threshold for enzyme damage in wheat.

Most studies that look at crop failure in the main food growing regions (breadbaskets of the planet) look at temperatures and droughts in the historical records to assess present day risk. Since the climate system has changed, these historical based risk analysis studies underestimate the present-day risks.

What this new research study does is generate an ensemble of plausible scenarios for the present climate in terms of temperatures and precipitation, and looks at how many of these plausible scenarios exceed the enzyme-breaking temperature of 32.8 C for wheat, and exceed the high stress yield reducing temperature of 27.8 C for wheat. Also, the study considers the possibility of a compounded failure with heat waves in both regions simultaneously, this greatly reducing global wheat supply and causing severe shortages.

Results show that the likelihood (risk) of wheat crop failure with a one-in-hundred likelihood in 1981 has in today’s climate become increased by 16x in the USA winter wheat crop (to one-in-six) and by 6x in northeast China (to one-in-sixteen).

The risks determined in this new paper are much greater than that obtained in previous work that determines risk by analyzing historical climate patterns.

Clearly, since the climate system is rapidly changing, we cannot assume stationarity and calculate risk probabilities like we did traditionally before.

We are essentially on a new planet, with a new climate regime, and have to understand that everything is different now.