Total Canadian wheat acres could be up by almost 4 per cent, Statistics Canada says
By Diego Flammini
Statistics Canada’s 2019 seeding intentions report followed market expectations but didn’t align with trader predictions, said Moe Agostino, chief commodity strategist with Farms.com Risk Management.
“This is what markets expected, but I do think that (traders) got it wrong because we had a lot more spring wheat acres than expected,” he told Farms.com.
Nationally, Canadian growers intend to plant 19.4 million acres of spring wheat in 2019, the report says. That number would be up from the 17.3 million acres seeded last spring.
On a provincial level, farmers in Alberta and Saskatchewan plan to plant 6.8 million and 9.0 million acres of spring wheat respectively. Both figures are increases from last year. Farmers in Manitoba also plan to increase wheat acreages.
In contrast, Canadian canola acres could be down this year.
High ending stocks and the ongoing trade dispute with China may contribute to the lower acreages, the report says.
Producers intend to plant 21.3 million acres of canola this year, down 6.6 per cent from 22.8 million in 2018.
Provincially, farmers in each Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta are scaling back canola production.
Saskatchewan could see the largest decline, dropping from 12.4 million acres in 2018 to 11.7 million acres this year.
Statistics Canada’s figures have affected commodity prices, Agostino said.
“Spring wheat is down about five (cents per bushel), but you could almost say it’s priced in,” he said. “I think it’s factored in because canola is actually trading higher. Lower canola acres do help because (this) lowers production and ending stocks.”
Other highlights from the report include decreases in lentil and soybean acres, and increases in corn, barley, oat and pea acres.
Statistics Canada will release a report on actual seeded area in June.
Weather will influence how the June report differs from these intended seeding numbers, Agostino said.
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