Hot, dry weather, pest pressure, and volatile markets leave Western Canadian growers with more questions than answers.
Western Canadian farmers are expressing growing concern over their canola crops as hot and dry conditions, flea beetle pressure, and uncertainty in the markets begin to mount.
On Agriville.com, a recent discussion paints a picture of both cautious optimism and growing anxiety among prairie producers.
The conversation began with one user noting that “new crop [is] looking good,” but responses quickly revealed a much more divided outlook.
While the canola futures chart might be looking up, farmers on the ground are grappling with deteriorating field conditions.
“Mother Nature [is] trying desperately to kill the crop here, 30 days earlier than last year,” one user wrote.
Another reported that flea beetles are “exploding in some areas” where the crop is stalled out and rain is badly needed.
Photos shared in the thread show fields ravaged by insect pressure, raising the alarm that regular scouting is essential to avoid significant losses.
Some producers said their crops were seeded early but are already falling behind, with little to no rain in the forecast. “Cereals won't make 15 [bushels per acre] here if it doesn't rain soon,” one user noted.
Others observed similarities to 2021, a drought year that left many crops scorched and unharvested.
Beyond weather, the market dynamics are adding to the tension.
While some are seeing forward bids as high as $15.20 per bushel for September canola, they’re hesitant to lock in contracts due to low yield potential.
“It would be financially suicidal at this time,” one farmer commented, noting the risk of overcommitting before the crop is in the bin.
The question of whether to sell now or wait is looming large.
Some are wondering whether to roll July canola contracts forward to November, as they suspect the national crop may already be “sub-20 million tonnes and dropping fast.”
One user summed it up bluntly: “No amount of rain can fix some of these problems.”
Livestock producers are also feeling the pinch.
Hay yields are down dramatically, with one producer who usually bales 2,800 tons of alfalfa expecting only 800 this year. Another added, “I see nothing, and I mean nothing, to bale around here.”
Feed barley prices have surged in response to tight supply, with local bids around Edmonton reaching $6 per bushel; enough for feedlots to outbid exporters in some cases. “One of the few times in history that’s possible,” a user noted.
Despite all this, some farmers are still holding out hope.
“Canola is the wild card,” one Saskatchewan producer wrote. “We could still grow a crop—average—but we need to tame the beetles and get some rain.”
The consensus is clear: while canola prices may be firming, the crop itself is in a precarious position.
Without rain—and soon—the optimism on the futures chart may not translate into bin-busting yields on the Prairies.
Check out the full thread, New Crop Canola, and join the discussion!