ASA warns prolonged China dispute threatens prices and fall grain movement
US soybean farmers are approaching a difficult moment as the trade dispute with China drags on. The American Soybean Association (ASA) says growers are under heavy financial pressure and cannot withstand a long conflict with their largest customer. In a letter to the US president, ASA President Caleb Ragland urged the administration to reach an agreement that removes duties and revives significant soybean purchases. The White House responded that it remains committed to opening markets and helping farmers sell more products.
An ASA white paper details why the stakes are high. China’s tariff on US soybeans is about 20% higher than the duty applied to South American supplies, keeping American beans uncompetitive. As harvest nears, China has not booked forward US cargoes. Historically, by this point in the season China would have secured around 14% of its expected US purchases; ahead of the 2022 harvest, that figure was 27%. This year, China imported record volumes from Brazil between April and July, building soymeal stocks and pushing crushing margins negative for processors. Traders also announced a first-time sale of Argentine soymeal to China for fall delivery to reassure feed buyers about supplies.
Export sales for the upcoming US crop are reported to be down sharply from the five-year average, amplifying stress from lower prices and higher input costs. Although futures briefly bounced after an August 11 social post calling for China to quadruple purchases, many producers doubt such a rapid increase can occur.
The effects are already visible in the Northern Plains. Some elevators in North Dakota have told farmers they may not accept new-crop soybeans at harvest. Analysts expect growers with on-farm storage to prioritize bin space for soybeans and delay corn harvest or use temporary storage options. Similar grain movement challenges are anticipated in Minnesota and South Dakota. The ASA concludes that timely policy progress is essential to stabilize prices, restore export demand, and keep family farms viable this fall.
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