Agriculture Canada has bumped up its 2025-26 canola ending stocks estimate but tightened its wheat outlook.
In updated monthly supply-demand estimates released Wednesday, Ag Canada revised its canola ending stocks estimate 10,000 tonnes higher from the January estimate to 2.76 million tonnes, now almost 73% above the previous year’s 1.597 million and 39% above the five-year average.
The increase is due to a 10,000-tonne upward revision in the import forecast, which rises to 110,000 tonnes – still below 130,000 a year earlier.
In the wake of a tariff deal reached with Beijing back in January that will sharply lower Chinese levies on imports of Canadian canola to 15% from the current 84% effective March 1, Ag Canada left its 2025-26 canola export forecast steady from last month at 8.2 million tonnes.
In its commentary, Ag Canada noted that although Canadian canola exports to all destinations lagged last year’s pace by 35% through week 26 of the 2025-26 crop year, that still represents an improvement of 6 points from January. In other words, canola exports are at least starting to catch up after a slow start to the crop year, with China reportedly now buying again.
The 2025-26 canola crush was also left unchanged from January, holding at 12 million tonnes. For the crop year to the end of December, Statistics Canada reported about 5 million tonnes of canola seed had been crushed, 2% ahead of last year.
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