Stronger snowpack and better reservoir levels point to higher river flows across major basins — but uneven soil moisture and uncertain spring rains mean risk still looms for farmers.
Alberta farmers are heading into the 2026 growing season with something that’s been in short supply in recent years: cautious optimism.
A new provincial Water Supply Outlook points to normal to above-normal river flows across most major basins, including the Milk, Oldman, Bow, Red Deer and North Saskatchewan rivers — a marked improvement over 2025 conditions.
For producers still recovering from multiple dry years, the report signals a potential reset — but not without risk.
Water outlook: better, but not guaranteed
The Alberta government’s forecast suggests March-to-September river volumes will be above or well above last year’s levels, driven largely by improved snowpack in the Rockies.
Snow surveys show many mountain sites at normal to significantly above-normal levels, with some basins carrying substantially more snow-water equivalent than a year ago.
Reservoir conditions are also relatively stable:
- Bow River basin: above normal storage
- Oldman/South Saskatchewan: near normal
- Red Deer basin: slightly below normal but improving
After three challenging seasons, officials say this is the most favourable early-season outlook since 2022.
Still, the report stresses a critical caveat: forecasts assume normal precipitation through spring and early summer — a period that ultimately determines yield potential across most of the province.
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