Canada’s Restaurant Sales Decline Amid U.S. Trade War – Implications for Pork Demand

May 05, 2025

Restaurants Canada has revised its 2025 forecast downward, projecting a contraction in Canadian commercial foodservice sales due to escalating trade tensions with the United States. The updated outlook predicts a decline of 0.4% to 1.5% in 2025 and up to 1.4% in 2026, in sharp contrast to earlier growth expectations.

While a temporary GST/HST holiday gave the industry a brief lift—with January foodservice sales up 7.5% and employment reaching 1.18 million—the trade war’s ripple effects have taken hold. Canadian restaurants report plans to cut non-essential spending, raise menu prices, and delay capital investments, which could ultimately reduce demand for pork and other proteins.

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Video: CEOs of the Industry: John McIntire, Partner at Pike Pig Systems

CEOs of the Industry, Jim sits down with John McIntire, Partner at Pike Pig Systems, one of the most quietly impressive 26,000-sow operations in the U.S. John shares how he grew from operator to partner, how Pike built a people-first culture with long-tenured managers, and why they’re committed to weaning bigger, stronger pigs at 25+ days.

John breaks down how Pike stays efficient in a tough economic environment, the power of their shareholder-owned farm model, and how their work with PIC and a 240-head boar facility drives genetics and health outcomes. He also opens up about the innovations Pike adopts — and how they decide what’s truly valuable versus industry hype.

From Prop 12 and labor challenges to trade, consumer expectations, and sustainability, John chooses a hot-button issue and shares how Pike is preparing for the future. The episode closes with a rapid-fire “Fast Five” — mindset, leadership, daily habits, and three words that define Pike Pig Systems in 2025.

If you want a look inside a people-driven, purpose-driven, quietly elite pork system, this is an episode you won’t want to miss.