Canada’s Restaurant Sales Decline Amid U.S. Trade War – Implications for Pork Demand

May 05, 2025

Restaurants Canada has revised its 2025 forecast downward, projecting a contraction in Canadian commercial foodservice sales due to escalating trade tensions with the United States. The updated outlook predicts a decline of 0.4% to 1.5% in 2025 and up to 1.4% in 2026, in sharp contrast to earlier growth expectations.

While a temporary GST/HST holiday gave the industry a brief lift—with January foodservice sales up 7.5% and employment reaching 1.18 million—the trade war’s ripple effects have taken hold. Canadian restaurants report plans to cut non-essential spending, raise menu prices, and delay capital investments, which could ultimately reduce demand for pork and other proteins.

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Video: How Data Predicts Swine Outbreaks - Swaminathan Jayaraman

In this episode of The Swine it Podcast Show Canada, Swaminathan Jayaraman, Research Assistant and PhD Candidate at Iowa State University College of Veterinary Medicine, explains how integrated data systems can improve disease surveillance in swine production. He discusses combining diagnostics, animal movement data, production records, and spatial analytics to identify risks earlier and support proactive decision-making for PRRS, PED, and swine influenza. Listen now on all major platforms!

"Disease surveillance remains largely reactive because outbreaks are often confirmed only after transmission has already occurred across multiple connected production sites."

Meet the guest: Swaminathan Jayaraman / swamjay is a Graduate Research Assistant at Iowa State University College of Veterinary Medicine. With academic training in management information systems and engineering, he focuses on integrating diagnostic, production, and movement data to improve disease surveillance and decision support in swine production systems. Listen to Swaminathan Jayaraman on The Swine it Podcast Show Canada, available on all major platforms.