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Changes May Be Coming For Canadian Grain Act

Tom Steve never thought he'd see a review of the Canadian Grain Act.
 
The former broadcaster and now General Manager of the Alberta Wheat Commission was pleasantly surprised to hear federal Ag Minister Marie-Claude Bibeau announce the consultation period for the review. It will continue until the end of April, as the federal government looks for input from stakeholders on how to make the act better. It hasn't had any real changes made to it in nearly half a century.
 
Tom Steve shares what he thinks is the priority for the commission.  "For the commissions that I represent, Alberta Wheat and Alberta Barley, right at the top of the list is the role of the Canadian Grain Commission. Whether they are an oversight agency and a service provider or simply an oversight agency.  The grain commission in its current form does a little bit of both.  On the service provider side, there are private companies that can deliver those grading services much more economically then a quasit government agency.  The role itself of being the regulator and the service provider puts the grain commission in a fundamental conflict of interest as far as my boards are concerned because they set the rates and then they charge the rates."
 
Steve shares a couple other issues that are high on the agenda of the Alberta Wheat Commission.  "One of them is the surplus that the Canadian Grain Commission has accumulated over the years.  It's in the order of $140 Million dollars. They initiated a consultation on how to deal with that surplus three years ago and ultimately decided to sit on that money. It's really farmers money that was collected on inordinately high rates for inspections.  We've argued that surplus should be paid down through lower inspection rates."  The third item is the multiple inspections of grain vessels at ports in Canada.  The commission inspects the vessel and then due to contract requirements has a third party company inspect the vessel. approximately 80 per cent of the vessels that haul Canadian grain from Canadian ports are inspected twice. Steve and the commission feel that this is a redundancy.
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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.