By Gregg Wartgow
What was expected to be a period of renewed growth has softened in the early months of the year, with tensions in the Strait of Hormuz adding another layer of uncertainty, particularly for agriculture, which was already facing a challenging outlook, while construction momentum in the U.S. has remained more insulated.
Early in the year, 2.32% growth in global construction output was anticipated. That forecast has been shaved by more than one-third to 1.52%. In the agriculture industry, negative financial indicators are flashing like they haven’t flashed since the early 1990s.
In the midst of all the external shocks and market disruptions, an increasing divergence between the agriculture and construction industries has also emerged — and it’s impacting equipment demand.
“Over the past year or so, public policy has been highly supportive of construction, but comparatively punitive for agriculture,” said Al Melhim, AEM’s senior director of business intelligence.
Melhim is referencing the $1 trillion public investment in non-residential construction in 2025 and 2026 to help support data center construction, advanced manufacturing, and the digital economy. “Ladies and gentlemen, that number is equivalent to the entire Swiss GDP,” Melhim pointed out.
Conversely, Melhim said the agriculture sector has suffered $21 billion in losses just from tariff retaliation alone.
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