Factors driving high hog prices

Hog prices were strong this summer. The average market hog price for June-August will come in roughly 18% above the same months last year. There are a number of factors contributing to this price improvement.

Production is down. Through July 2025 hog slaughter was down 1.7% and pork production was down 1.5%. Not only was hog slaughter down from a year ago, it was down relative to summer expectations. U.S. hog slaughter over the last 12 weeks (since the beginning of June) was down 3.0% year-over-year. The heavy weight market hog inventory in the June Hogs and Pigs report implied slaughter during this period would be unchanged from a year ago. The difference is larger than usual. The June Hogs and Pigs Report implies fall slaughter will be up a bit less than 1%.

Weather also may be having an impact on slaughter levels. The hot summer slowed rates of gain and thus pulled down slaughter weights. The reduced rates of gain also delayed slaughter.

The amount of pork in cold storage at the end of July totaled 404.583 million pounds. That was the lowest level since December and was down 10.8% compared to a year ago.  Low stocks of frozen pork should be positive for pork prices.