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Federal election 2019: African Swine Fever

National Pork Board and the Pork Checkoff, Des Moines, Iowa photo
 
The next Canadian federal election will take place on Monday, October 21, 2019. For producers, the next election is an opportunity for the interests of agriculture to reinforced by voting for your local candidate with the strongest background and most favourable policy positions in this area.
 
Approaching the upcoming election, Alberta Pork has previously covered the need for federal government support for international trade markets, along with the need for improved business risk management programs for producers. A third important issue, African Swine Fever preparedness, concerns the very existence of our industry.
 
In August 2018, China announced the first of more than 150 cases of ASF, sparking a global growth in the disease which had been mostly contained for the last decade. Today, ASF is found in at least a dozen countries in Asia and Europe, with cases reported right up to the borders of neighbouring countries, and instances of ASF-positive pork products seized at airports in Japan, Australia and the U.K., all within the past year. Most recently, in September 2019, the disease spread to South Korea and the Philippines—significant Canadian pork export markets. The threat of transmission is very real.
 
Preventing the spread of ASF includes the development of high-level strategies for managing the disease, surveillance at international borders, international cooperation, the eradication of Canada’s wild pig population and increased public awareness.
 
For countries where ASF is found, pork exports to many foreign markets are effectively suspended, except in the case where zoning agreements are established. In May and July 2019, Canada established zoning agreements with the U.S. and European Union. The practice of zoning ensures that, if a disease is found in one area of a country, the movement of animals, persons, feed and equipment to other parts of that country is restricted, to reduce the risk of disease transmission. It’s one way to reassure trading partners that everyone affected is making a strong effort to control the spread of disease.
 
Without zoning agreements and associated guarantees, borders close to product from known ASF source countries, even if the product is safe to consume and being sold at a discount. For Canada, that would mean an immediate 70 per cent loss of our market, which is export-based. This would result in a crippled $24 billion pork sector and equate to a $50 billion impact on the Canadian economy, along with significantly jeopardizing our trade reputation globally.
 
The Canadian Pork Council (CPC), to which Alberta Pork belongs, is working closely with the Canadian Border Security Agency (CBSA) and the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) to develop contingency plans to prevent the spread of ASF and emergency response plans in the unfortunate situation that prevention fails. This federal-provincial collaboration will require ongoing support.
 
In March 2019, Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Marie-Claude Bibeau, announced more than $30 million in funding for the acquisition and training of detector dogs at Canadian airports, directly in response to the threat of ASF. The funding will help add 24 detector dog teams to the Canadian Border Services Agency (CBSA) over five years. In addition to detector dogs, stakeholders have been meeting with airlines to develop messaging and education around the risk of bringing ASF into Canada.
 
In addition to working within Canada’s borders, international efforts are being made to plan for scenarios that affect all of North America. In August 2019, Chief Veterinary Officers from Canada, the U.S. and Mexico met during the North American Animal Health Committee Meeting to begin discussing an ASF strategy. This group will meet again in October to further this strategy and organize ASF response drills.
 
On the wild pig front, Canada has been woefully slow to implement a strategy and allocate funds to manage the growing problem, though various small-scaled provincial programs are working to understand animal movements. A study published in May 2019 by University of Saskatchewan researchers Ryan Brook and Ruth Aschim evaluates potential national-scale strategies for managing our wild pig herds, which are increasing in size, number and spread. As a result, wild pigs continue to threaten crops, livestock and the environment while also posing a significant risk for ASF transmission, should the disease enter a herd here. In Europe, wild pigs are mostly responsible for spreading the disease in Russia, Bulgaria and Belgium.
 
For as much as the pork industry can do to protect itself from ASF, keeping Canada free of the disease depends largely on the public’s support. To help increase public awareness of the disease, CFIA, working with producer-group partners like Alberta Pork, has been actively creating awareness materials for distribution in hard-copy form, through its website and social media, along with evaluating the possibility of using other multimedia to reach out.
 
Alberta Pork hopes the next federal government will continue to develop its existing strategies and tactics, along with making available more funding, when necessary, to put in place new programs for enhanced ASF prevention.
Source : Alberta Pork

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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.