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Grain Futures Prices Mostly Lower on Forecast Stocks

Monday's Closing Grain + LIvestock Futures Prices

Sep. corn closed at $3.39 and 1/4, down 7 and 1/4 cents
Sep. soybeans closed at $10.90 and 384, up 5 and 1/4 cents
Sep. soybean meal closed at $446.20, up $10.10
Sep. soybean oil closed at 32.03, down 32 points
Sep. wheat closed at $5.33 and 1/2, up 2 cents
Oct. live cattle closed at $158.52, down $1.22
Oct. lean hogs closed at $103.07, down $2.55
Oct. crude oil closed at $92.66, down 63 cents
Dec. cotton closed at 65.05, up 74 points
Sep. Class III milk closed at $24.45, up 17 cents
Sep. gold closed at $1,252.70, down $13.10
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,111.42, down 25.94 points

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Ag Market News and Commodity Comments 

Soybeans were mostly lower on commercial and speculative selling. There’s still a chance for an early freeze in parts of the region later this week, but it’s apparently a smaller chance than on Friday and the trade’s taking a wait and see attitude, focusing on the expected record crop. The next set of supply, demand, and production numbers are out Thursday. The exception was the lightly trade September contract. USDA reports that as of Sunday, 12% of beans are dropping leaves, compared to 17% on average, with 72% of the crop rated good to excellent, unchanged on the week. Soybean meal was mixed, mostly lower, following beans, and oil was down on the generally bearish tone at the CBOT. China bought 120,000 tons of 2014/15 U.S. beans. China reports August soybean imports were 6.03 million tons.

Corn was lower on commercial and speculative selling. Like beans, corn’s also watching the weather, but is more focused on expectations for a record crop. According to the Ag Department, 95% of corn is at the dough making stage, compared to 94% on average, with 69% dented, compared to 74% on average, and 15% is mature, compared to 26% on average. 74% of corn is in good to excellent shape, unchanged from a week ago. Ethanol futures were lower.

The wheat complex was mixed in consolidation trade. Wheat’s also keeping an eye on weather, but the record world crop is the big bearish factor. For spring wheat, 58% of the crop is harvested, compared to 78% on average, with 60% of the crop called good to excellent, down 3% from last week. For winter wheat, 3% is planted, compared to 4% on average. The trade’s continuing to watch the uncertain trade, political, and diplomatic situation in Ukraine.

Cattle country was quiet on Monday afternoon following the distribution of the new showlist. Ready numbers appear to be mixed, larger in Kansas, smaller in Texas and Colorado and about unchanged in Nebraska. A few of the showlists have been priced around 165.00 plus in the South and 255.00 to 258.00 in the North. The slaughter was estimated at 115,000 head, 4,000 below last year, but not comparable to last week’s holiday kill of 2,000 head.

Boxed beef cutout values closed higher on moderate to fairly good demand and light to moderate offerings. Choice boxed beef was up 2.72 at 251.39, and select was 1.59 higher at 237.84.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange live cattle contracts settled .50 higher to 1.22 lower. The front month October contract traded under pressure through much of the session as traders tried to unwind a portion of the gains seen late last week. Position taking appeared to be the main item of business on Monday and potentially through the next couple of days. But the ability for the rest of the complex to bounce back from early losses and trade in a narrowly mixed range created a sense of longer term support over the next couple of weeks. October settled 1.22 lower at 158.52, and December was down .07 at 160.85.

Feeder cattle ended the session 112 to 170 points higher with the futures concentrating more on live cattle market stability and strong losses in the corn market as buyer have aggressively returned to the market. Triple digit gains firmly held in both September and October futures as traders also focused on the tight supply of both feeder cattle and market ready fed cattle available to the market at this point. This could help to sustain price levels over the near future. September settled 1.42 higher at 227.15 and October was up 1.55 at 225.92.

Feeder cattle receipts at the Joplin Regional Stockyards today totaled 7,000 head. There was no sale last week, compared to two weeks ago, steer and heifer calves opened steady to 5.00 higher, yearling steers were 5.00 to 10.00 higher on a limited test. Yearling heifers were not well tested early. Demand was good and the supply is moderate. Feeder steers medium and large 1 weighing 600 to 700 pounds traded from 234.00 to 260.00. 6 to 7 weight heifers brought 227.00 to 232.00.

Lean hogs settled mixed with the October contract aggressively backing away from last week’s gains with losses remaining in the triple digit range through the close. Moderate to strong support developed in the rest of the complex, as traders concentrated on potentially tighter supplies through next summer as demand is likely to remain strong. October settled 2.55 lower at 103.07 and December was down .60 at 96.05.

Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota direct trade closed 1.09 higher at 99.79 on a carcass basis, the West was up 1.08 at 99.72, and the East was .95 higher at 93.56. Missouri direct base carcass meat price was 6.00 higher from 87.00 to 92.00. Midwest hogs closed 1.00 lower to 3.00 higher from 60.00 to 66.00 live.

The pork carcass cutout value FOB plant was up .50 at 103.66.

Hog slaughter was estimated at 400,000 head, last Monday was a holiday, and down 18,000 from last year.

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