Grain Growers of Canada want farmer-led plan for net zero emissions

Aug 30, 2022

The Grain Growers of Canada says it wants to work with government to achieve net zero carbon emissions, but not be told how it must do so.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada issued a discussion document on July 22 that calls for a reduction of GHG emissions from fertilizers to drop 30 per cent from 2020 levels by 2030. The government is seeking input from farmers, processors, Indigenous communities, environmental organizations, youth and other stakeholders by August 31.

Late in March, the Grain Growers of Canada (GGC) announced it would launch a Road to 2050 net-zero emissions initiative. Andre Harpe, chair of the GGC, told Farmers Forum it wants to pursue the target while supporting farmers’ interests.

“We’ve gone and said, hey, let’s go with this, but let’s do it in such a way that farmers can live with it and that is beneficial to farmers and comes from the farmers — because, as we’ve seen over the past little while, some arbitrary lines have been drawn, and everybody’s quite concerned about them and whether they can be done or not,” Harpe said in an interview.

Fertilizer Canada, which represents manufacturers and distributors, commissioned Myers Norris Penny to report on the implications of reducing fertilizer applications by just 20 per cent by 2030. The estimate made last September said the result would be lower yields that cost farmers $48 billion by 2030.

“This would be devastating, such that any plan to reduce carbon emissions would need to be done in a way that the future productivity of major crops is maintained,” the report said.

Fertilizer reduction targets in the Netherlands have sparked protests, as they did in Sri Lanka, where a literal revolution occurred over the issue.

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Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.