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Higher Ontario Yields Boost Projected Corn, Soy Output

An upward revision in yields in the main production province of Ontario has helped boost estimated national corn and soybean production.
 
Model-based production estimates released by Statistics Canada on Thursday pegged 2019 nationwide corn output at 14.11 million tonnes, up from the federal agency’s August estimate of 13.61 million tonnes and now 1.6% above a year earlier. Canadian soybean production is now seen at 6.48 million tonnes, up about 280,000 from last month although still well down from the 2018 crop of 7.26 million.
 
Today’s production estimates are based on a model that incorporates satellite and agroclimatic data, along with data from Statistics Canada's field crop reporting series. Last month’s estimates were based on farmer surveys taken between July 4 and Aug. 5 - and before more regular, widespread rain across the Prairies.
 
In Ontario, where badly delayed spring seeding got the crop off on the wrong foot, the average corn yield is expected at 162.5 bu/acre, up 6.4 bu from last month and just 3.5 bu below a year earlier. Production is expected at 8.97 million tonnes, up from 8.62 million in August and 8.76 million in 2018. At 2.17 million acres, corn harvested area is unchanged from last month and up slightly from last year.
 
Meanwhile, Ontario soy production is forecast at 3.9 million tonnes, up about 230,000 tonnes from last month’s estimate as the average expected yield is now 46.3 bu/acre. That’s an increase of 2.7 bu from August but is still down a hefty 5.1 bu from a year earlier. Last year’s Ontario soy crop amounted to 4.2 million tonnes.
 
Manitoba soybean production this year is forecast at 1.34 million tonnes, up from 1.28 million in August but still down from 1.58 million in 2018. The average yield in the province increased to 34 bu/acre from 32.5 in August and 31.1 bu a year ago.
 
Corn output in Manitoba is seen at 1.46 million tonnes, little changed from 1.43 million in August and up from 1.2 million in 2018. The average yield of 133.3 bu/acre is up from 130.9 bu in August and 20 bu above the previous year.
 
At 3.42 million tonnes, Quebec corn output was increased from 3.3 million in August while soybean production was little changed at 1.05 million. Last year, the Quebec corn and soybean crops amounted to 3.61 million and 1.16 million tonnes, respectively. The average corn yield was revised up about 5 bu from last month to 145.1 bu/acre, and the soybean yield was trimmed slightly to 42.9 bu/acre.
 
Projected Saskatchewan soybean production was unchanged from last month at 114,400 tonnes (down sharply from 231,800 in 2018), while Alberta corn output was revised slightly higher from last month to 91,300 tonnes – down from 118,300 tonnes in 2018.
Source : Syngenta